PRESS RELEASE: MeOH Weekly Liquid Fuel Markets Update – w/e 25.09.2026: CRUDE RETREATS; DIESEL PRESSURE REMAINS
• Brent crude closed the week at approximately US$104.32/bbl as hopes of progress towards a U.S.-Iran truce and improved flows through the Strait of Hormuz reduced some of the immediate geopolitical risk premium.
• WTI fell more sharply, closing Friday at approximately US$92.41/bbl and widening the spread between the two major global crude benchmarks to almost US$12/bbl.
• Global diesel markets remain under severe pressure despite easing crude prices, following record price levels earlier in the week and continuing disruption to global refining and shipping.
• For Australia, the divergence between crude and refined-fuel markets again highlights the nation’s exposure to international refining capacity, shipping routes and imported transportation fuels.
Global liquid-fuel markets experienced another highly volatile week as hopes of diplomatic progress in the Middle East competed with continuing attacks on energy infrastructure and exceptionally tight refined-product markets.
Crude prices fell sharply on Friday following reports of progress towards a possible U.S.-Iran truce and discussions surrounding improved shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude fell approximately 2.1% on Friday to settle around US$104.32/bbl, while West Texas Intermediate declined approximately 2.3% to US$92.41/bbl.
The considerably weaker WTI market produced an unusually wide spread of almost US$12/bbl between the two benchmarks.
“The market is trying to price peace and disruption simultaneously,” said MeOH Energy Chairman Simon Tolhurst.
“Every indication of improved flows through Hormuz takes some risk premium out of crude, while every attack on a refinery, pipeline or shipping route reminds the market just how fragile the underlying system remains.”
CRUDE OIL
Indicative Market View: Elevated / Highly Volatile
Brent Crude: approx. US$104.32/bbl | WTI: approx. US$92.41/bbl
WTI declined approximately 8% over the week, reflecting increased U.S. crude inventories, weaker demand expectations and speculation surrounding possible restrictions on U.S. diesel exports.
Brent proved considerably more resilient and finished the week little changed despite Friday’s decline.
Continuing disruption across the Middle East has maintained a substantial geopolitical premium in the international benchmark.
Markets were reminded of that vulnerability during the week when attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure again raised concerns over the reliability of alternative export routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The result is a crude market capable of moving several percentage points in either direction within a single trading session as geopolitical developments compete with weakening demand signals.
“The volatility itself is important,” Mr Tolhurst said.
“A market moving five per cent in one day and reversing sharply the next is not signalling stability. It is signalling uncertainty.”
REFINED FUELS
Indicative Market View: Very Firm – Diesel Remains the Critical Pressure Point
The most important feature of the global liquid-fuels market remains the continuing disconnect between crude oil and finished transportation fuels.
Global diesel markets reached record levels in some major markets earlier in the week as restricted Red Sea shipping, Middle East disruption and continuing damage to Russian refining infrastructure constrained available supply.
The prospect of restrictions on U.S. diesel exports added another potential pressure point.
Any reduction in U.S. exports intended to protect domestic consumers would potentially remove product from an already constrained international market.
“Crude can fall while diesel remains expensive because they are increasingly two different market stories,” said MeOH Energy CEO Michael ‘Mick’ Spencer.
“You need crude, refining capacity and reliable shipping to put diesel into the tank of a truck, tractor or mining vehicle. At present, all three are exposed to disruption.”
AUSTRALIA – PRICE PRESSURE CONTINUES
Indicative Market View: High Prices / Supply Currently Stable
Australia continues to experience the consequences of elevated international refined-fuel prices.
Diesel prices above A$3.00 per litre have been reported at some Australian retail outlets, increasing pressure on households and fuel-intensive sectors including agriculture, freight, mining and regional industries.
While easing crude prices may eventually provide some relief, movements in Brent or WTI do not translate directly or immediately into equivalent changes at Australian bowsers.
Australia remains heavily dependent upon imported refined petroleum products and therefore exposed not simply to the price of crude, but also to international refining margins, freight costs, shipping availability and currency movements.
The present divergence between crude and diesel prices demonstrates that distinction particularly clearly.
AUSTRALIAN FUEL SECURITY
The events of recent months have again demonstrated the difference between having access to crude oil and having access to finished transportation fuels.
Australia continues to rely heavily upon international refineries and shipping networks for the petrol, diesel and aviation fuels required by the domestic economy.
Government strategic reserves and increased stockholding requirements can provide an important buffer against short-term interruptions.
They do not replace domestic production capability.
“Storage buys time,” Mr Spencer said.
“Domestic production builds resilience.”
“For an energy-rich island nation importing most of its transportation fuels, the strategic opportunity is to develop the capability to manufacture more of those fuels here in Australia from Australian resources.”
MARKET OUTLOOK
Crude Oil: Elevated / Volatile | Diesel: Very Firm | Petrol: Firm | Aviation Fuel: Firm
The immediate outlook remains unusually sensitive to geopolitical developments.
Progress towards a US-Iran agreement and improved movement through the Strait of Hormuz could remove further risk premium from crude prices.
Conversely, additional attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure, continuing disruption to Russian refining capacity or restrictions on U.S. refined-fuel exports could rapidly reverse that direction.
China also remains an important moderating influence. Slower growth in Chinese petroleum demand, increasing electric-vehicle penetration and changing domestic consumption patterns are reducing one source of pressure on the international crude market.
For Australia, however, the key indicator remains the availability and price of finished transportation fuels rather than crude oil alone.
“The past week is almost a case study in Australia’s fuel vulnerability,” Mr Tolhurst said.
“Crude prices fell, yet the pressure on diesel remained.”
“That is why Australian fuel security ultimately requires more than access to international crude markets. It requires greater domestic capability to manufacture the transportation fuels our economy consumes every day.”
ENDS
