PRESS RELEASE: Is Australia’s Defence Capability more Delulu than Solulu?
Recently, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said the United States would take military action to prevent China from invading Taiwan and that Beijing posed an imminent threat.
Hegseth said while the US sought peace with China, it also prepared for war. He encouraged America’s allies to significantly increase their military spending in readiness. If military deterrence fails, then the US stands ready to “fight and win decisively” should Beijing seek a military conflict over Taiwan.
Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles seemed to endorse Hegseth’s comments. Marles stated Australia cannot be “passive bystanders” in a war between the US and China.
In federal parliament, Marles said Australia will deepen and evolve our security cooperation with the US and other allies, to address shared strategic challenges and advance our mutual security interests.
The Trump administration has recently ordered a review of the AUKUS defence cooperation pact that could include i) Australia paying more to receive nuclear powered submarines than the estimated A$364 billion price tag and ii) a guarantee that Australia would support the US in any military conflict, including Taiwan.
As such, it’s appropriate citizens be informed about Australia’s defence capability or lack thereof. And what direct involvement in a conflict with China could look like.
The estimated relative military capability of China and Australia, indicates an overwhelming differential in personnel and firepower.
For example, active forces 2.03 million vs 60,000, reserves 510,000 vs 32,000 and paramilitary 625,000 vs zero. Available manpower 764 million vs 11 million. Total aircraft over 5,000 vs 360, including over 1,200 fighter jets vs 100. Tanks 6,800 vs 60, multiple rocket launchers 2,750 vs zero and self-propelled artillery 3,500 vs zero. China has a multi-layered missile defence, whereas Australia is yet to develop its capability. Naval fleet strength of more than 750 vs 44, including aircraft carriers three vs zero and submarines 61 vs six.
China is also thought to have 600 defensive nuclear warheads, whereas Australia mines and exports uranium. By comparison, the US and Russia each have in excess of 5,000 nuclear warheads.
When considering military engagement, Australians should have regard to current conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. Where twenty-first century military rules of engagement often include bombing civilians and related infrastructure as high value targets. For example, schools, health, energy, water, telecommunications, banking, cyber networks and undersea data cables, transport and merchant shipping, residential apartment blocks and suburban houses, retail and entertainment precincts, aid distribution, places of worship, and cultural and recreational assets.
Surprisingly, much of Australia’s military assets and critical infrastructure is undefended from a military attack, either external or internal.
It’s also likely that any general call-up of Australians for active military combat, would see thousands of men and women leave its shores rather than die in a US declared war they don’t support. For example, between 250,000 and one million Russian men of fighting age are thought to have left the country to avoid military service in its war against Ukraine.
Unfortunately, the ADF has a reported history of recruitment and retention difficulties, bullying and misogyny, sexual harassment, trauma and assault, disproportionate mental health and suicidality, secrecy and protection, shadowy military justice and policing, capability gaps and strategic failure, procurement incompetence and waste, top heavy and tone deaf military command, adverse environmental, health and financial impacts from forever chemicals emanating from its bases, recalcitrance and inadequate governance, political ineptness and inaction, and being poor corporate citizens and inconsiderate neighbours.
Australians may question whether its military preparedness/involvement in a war with China over Taiwan is currently more delulu than solulu?
Dr Michael Walton, Clinical Psychologist, New South Wales, Australia
