Monday 5th of October 2026 Latest Press Release

PRESS RELEASE: Weekly Update – Global Fertiliser Markets – w/e 02.10.2026: GLOBAL FERTILISER MARKETS WAIT ON INDIA AS CHINA RELEASES MORE UREA

• Urea prices on hold ahead of India’s 7 October tender; China expected to play a major role – announces fourth export tranche.
• Processed phosphate prices remain under pressure from muted demand; limited availability continues to provide price support.
• Potash prices expected to soften as high inventories, limited fresh demand and ample supply weigh on the market.
• Ammonia prices east of Suez higher after weeks of decline as supply tightens and Chinese exports retreat.

UREA
Indicative Market View: Stable to Soft
China Prilled Urea: USD 360s PMT FOB; Brazil Chinese Urea: approx. USD 470 PMT CFR; Brazil Non-Chinese Urea: above USD 500 PMT CFR; Southeast Asia: approx. USD 480–485 PMT CFR; Brunei: approx. USD 460 PMT FOB.

Global urea markets remained subdued this week as buyers and sellers focused on the outcome of India’s 7 October tender.

The tender comes as China announces a fourth tranche of urea exports, with market expectations that approximately 1.5–2.0 million MT could be made available. The timing has already affected sentiment, with Chinese prilled urea offers retreating from around USD 385 PMT FOB into the USD 360s PMT FOB.

Market speculation around India’s likely L1 tender price currently ranges from below USD 400 PMT CFR to around USD 410 PMT CFR.

The combination of another major Indian tender and increased Chinese export availability could therefore set the direction of international urea pricing through October.

Elsewhere, Brazilian buyers remain largely on the sidelines. Non-Chinese urea is being offered above USD 500 PMT CFR, while Chinese product is around USD 470 PMT CFR. Uncertainty surrounding Safrinha weather conditions and farmer financing is further restraining buying activity.

Liquidity also remains limited in the US/NOLA and European markets.

Southeast Asian activity has been similarly restrained. Thailand has been one of the few active buyers, with recent business reported below USD 480 PMT CFR through to approximately USD 485 PMT CFR. Heavy rainfall and the approaching end of the main application season are now limiting further demand.

Brunei Fertilizer Industries also tendered approximately 30,000 MT of urea, with market indications suggesting business around USD 460 PMT FOB.

The Strait of Hormuz continues to influence global trade flows. Reduced Middle Eastern availability and the absence of Iranian exports have forced buyers to look increasingly towards alternative supply origins.

Against this backdrop, India’s latest tender and the release of additional Chinese exports could place a ceiling on prilled urea pricing and potentially influence granular urea prices as well.

“The urea market is effectively waiting for a price signal. India’s tender and the additional Chinese export tonnes should give us that signal very quickly,” Australian Fertiliser Corporation CEO Stein Haugan said.

“Market indications for Chinese prilled urea are of the order of USD 360 per metric tonne FOB,” he said.

PROCESSED PHOSPHATES
Indicative Market View: Stable to Soft
India DAP: USD 890–905 PMT CFR; Brazil MAP: USD 830–850 PMT CFR.

Global DAP and MAP prices were broadly stable again this week, but sentiment remains under pressure as spot demand stays weak.

Indian DAP assessments eased to approximately USD 890–905 PMT CFR, their lowest level since April, as buyers continued to resist higher-priced tonnes and waited for further price reductions.
The Brazilian MAP market was even quieter, with prices holding around USD 830–850 PMT CFR for a fifth consecutive week. Suppliers continue to seek greater liquidity, but buyers remain reluctant to commit.

The underlying tension in the phosphate market remains unchanged: demand is weak, but product availability is also constrained.

That limited supply should prevent a rapid price correction. Prices may continue to ease over coming months, but any decline is likely to be gradual, particularly while Chinese export availability remains restricted.

“Phosphates remain caught between two competing forces — buyers are resisting current prices, but limited availability means there simply isn’t sufficient product available to drive prices sharply lower,” Mr Haugan said.

POTASH
Indicative Market View: Softening
Southeast Asia Granular MOP: USD 425–435 PMT CFR; Brazil: broadly stable, with high inventories continuing to weigh on the outlook.

Potash markets showed mixed movements this week, although the broader outlook remains softer.

Brazilian spot prices were stable, but inventories remain high, exceeding 2.5 million tonnes as of June. Suppliers are increasingly looking to clear stocks while buyers take advantage of favourable barter ratios to secure forward requirements.

In Southeast Asia, standard MOP prices declined as weaker demand encouraged lower-priced sales. Granular MOP moved in the opposite direction, rising approximately 4% week-on-week to USD 425–435 PMT CFR as Thailand returned to the market.

India’s September MOP vessel line-up declined 26% from August, while port inventories also fell during the week. At the same time, higher freight costs are becoming an increasingly important consideration for importers.

Chinese port prices weakened ahead of Golden Week amid sluggish demand, with China and Russia yet to agree October contract pricing.

“High inventories, limited fresh demand, potential reductions in Chinese imports and additional production capacity continue to point towards softer pricing in several key markets,” said Mr Haugan.
“With inventories high and buyers in no hurry to secure additional tonnes, the pressure in potash is increasingly on suppliers to stimulate fresh demand.”

AMMONIA
Indicative Market View: Firming
Southeast Asia: USD 430–480 PMT FOB; India: USD 430–450 PMT CFR; Indonesia Spot Cargo: approx. USD 520 PMT CFR.

After several weeks of falling prices, ammonia has changed direction.

Prices moved higher this week, particularly East of Suez, as tighter Indonesian supply and reduced Chinese export availability altered the supply-demand balance.
Southeast Asian indications for second-half October loading moved to approximately USD 430–480 PMT FOB, compared with a floor around USD 400 PMT FOB the previous week.

Indonesia is central to the change. Planned and unplanned plant outages have tightened domestic availability, with Indonesian producers reportedly sold out for October and already discussing November allocations.

The change has been significant enough to attract product into Indonesia, with a 6,000 MT spot cargo reported sold into Gresik at approximately USD 520 PMT CFR.

Chinese supply has also tightened as relatively strong domestic pricing reduces export incentives.

India followed the market higher, with CFR indications around USD 430–450 PMT. Buyers, however, appear reluctant to move materially beyond USD 450 PMT CFR, leaving the market temporarily at an impasse.

East of Suez prices are likely to remain supported while Indonesian production remains constrained and East Asian demand returns towards the end of October.

“Ammonia is a useful reminder of how quickly these markets can turn. After weeks of declining prices, relatively small changes in available supply have been enough to reverse the direction of the market East of Suez,” Mr Haugan said.

Looking more broadly across international fertiliser markets, Mr Haugan said the events of 2026 continued to demonstrate Australia’s exposure to global supply disruption.

“Australia remains highly exposed to international fertiliser markets and the global supply chains connecting producers with Australian agriculture,” said Mr Haugan.

“Events during 2026 have again demonstrated how geopolitical disruption, constrained shipping routes, export policy decisions and major international tenders can rapidly alter Australia’s fertiliser availability and pricing.”

“Australia imports 100% of its urea requirements and 100% of its sulphur requirements.”

“This cannot be described as sound policy by any measure.”

“Developing additional domestic fertiliser production capacity provides Australia with an opportunity to strengthen supply resilience and reduce exposure to increasingly volatile international supply chains.”

ENDS

About Australian Fertilizer Corporation (AFC)

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For Further Information: Stein C. Haugan, CEO AFC – Australian Fertilizer Corporation e [email protected] m ‭+65 8328 7681‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬ Australian Fertilizer Corporation (AFC) Australian Fertilizer Corporation (AFC) is a Brisbane-based fertiliser company focused on strengthening Australia’s domestic nutrient supply. The Company is progressing the development of a large-scale ammonia and granular urea facility in Gladstone, Queensland, utilising established gasification technology in combination with circular carbon economic principles to produce nitrogenous fertilisers at scale. In parallel, AFC is advancing downstream capability including a proposed AdBlue-grade urea production facility. AFC’s strategy is to reduce reliance on imported fertilisers while supporting long-term supply security for the Australian agricultural sector.

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