PRESS RELEASE: Weekly Update – Global Fertiliser Markets – w/e 26.06.2026: GLOBAL FERTILISER MARKETS HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY GEOPOLITICS.
• Urea – How Low Will Prices Go Over Coming Weeks
• Phosphate – Prices to Remain Relatively Stable
• Potash – Prices Stable
• Ammonia – Prices Soft and Expected to Continue to Decline
Global fertiliser markets remain heavily influenced by geopolitics, shifting trade flows and seasonal demand patterns. While the easing of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz has reduced immediate supply concerns, buyers remain cautious as uncertainty surrounding Iran, Chinese exports, and global affordability continues to shape purchasing decisions.
UREA
Indicative Range: USD 380–460/t CFR (Market Softening)
The global urea market remains one of the most difficult commodity markets to read, with multiple geopolitical and commercial factors influencing price direction simultaneously.
The reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has provided the market with its first meaningful sign of normalisation. Approximately 500,000 tonnes of urea are reported to have transited the Strait in recent days, easing concerns that had briefly driven prices sharply higher. The key question facing buyers is no longer whether supply will move, but how far prices may retreat over coming weeks.
China continues to add uncertainty. While exports to India have effectively resumed, China’s administered export floor prices remain above prevailing international buying interest, limiting trade volumes. Reports of Australian business being concluded around USD 460/t FOB suggest Chinese sellers remain reluctant to discount heavily despite softer global sentiment.
Seasonality is also becoming a headwind. Europe and North America are entering their traditional low-demand period, while Brazil’s major Safrinha purchasing programme remains several months away. Thin buying interest has left India as the only consistently liquid import market following its recent tender securing approximately 1.7 million tonnes.
“The longer-term wildcard remains Iran,” said Australian Fertilizer Corporation, CEO Stein Haugan.
“With approximately nine million tonnes of annual urea production capacity, any meaningful easing of international sanctions would materially reshape global nitrogen trade flows,” said Mr. Haugan.
“Greater market transparency would undoubtedly benefit buyers through increased competition, although access to international banking and trade finance remains a significant unknown that could continue to restrict participation,” Mr. Haugan continued.
Affordability pressures continue to influence farm purchasing decisions worldwide. Recent surveys of European growers indicate many producers intend reducing nitrogen application rates over the next two seasons, while shifting cropping programs towards less nitrogen-intensive alternatives. Similar behaviour is increasingly evident in Australia, where growers continue seeking ways to reduce reliance on imported nitrogen as commodity prices remain under pressure.
Current trading activity reflects this uncertainty. Brazil is trading around USD 380–420/t CFR depending on shipment timing, Southeast Asian values remain near USD 420/t FOB for larger cargoes, while Chinese offers continue to struggle attracting buying interest around current export floor prices.
“The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz removes one major source of market anxiety,” said Mr. Haugan, “However, evolving Chinese export policy and the potential return of Iranian product suggest volatility is likely to remain elevated.”
“AFC expects urea prices to continue easing over the coming weeks as supply normalises and seasonal demand weakens.”
PROCESSED PHOSPHATES
Indicative Range: MAP USD 880–900/t CFR | DAP USD 920–935/t CFR (Stable to Firm)
Global phosphate markets softened modestly this week as buyers continued delaying purchases in anticipation of lower prices. However, unlike urea, the underlying supply fundamentals remain exceptionally tight.
MAP values into Brazil eased slightly after nine consecutive weeks of strength, while DAP prices into India also edged lower as affordability concerns limited immediate buying activity. Despite these corrections, phosphate prices remain near their highest levels since 2022 following substantial gains throughout the first half of the year.
“Many importers are hoping that improved shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz and easing Middle East tensions will translate into lower prices,” said Mr. Haugan. “While this has encouraged buyers to remain on the sidelines, supply restrictions and elevated raw material costs continue to provide strong support for the market.”
Recent weakness in urea has also encouraged some buyers to expect similar corrections across phosphates.
“AFC believes this comparison is misplaced,” said Haugan. “Unlike nitrogen markets, phosphate availability remains constrained by limited finished product supplies together with ongoing tightness across key raw materials.”
“While prices may experience further short-term consolidation as buyers delay purchasing, AFC continues to expect phosphate markets to resume their upward trajectory later this year as seasonal demand returns and supply remains constrained,” he said
POTASH
Indicative Range: USD 395–405/t CFR (Stable)
Potash markets remain broadly balanced, although regional pricing continues to diverge.
European values edged marginally higher as suppliers remain effectively sold out through August, while North American pricing softened slightly following completion of summer fill programmes. Brazilian prices were largely unchanged despite increasing indications that buyers have largely completed near-term procurement following record import volumes earlier this year.
Across Southeast Asia, prices remained stable, although stronger palm oil prices have improved affordability for specialty potash products used throughout Malaysia and neighbouring markets.
Despite subdued buying activity in several importing regions, overall market fundamentals remain constructive. Limited producer availability through the Northern Hemisphere summer continues supporting prices, while demand remains resilient across key agricultural markets.
“AFC expects potash prices to remain relatively stable over coming weeks, with modest upside risk should supply constraints persist into the second half of the year,” said Mr. Haugan.
AMMONIA
Indicative Range: USD 600 – 750/t CFR (Softening; Downward Bias)
Global ammonia markets continued weakening this week as improving Middle East logistics and expanding export availability increased confidence that supply conditions are returning to normal.
The successful transit of ammonia cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly reduced immediate supply concerns, while Iranian shipments into India have resumed following the recent US Treasury sanctions waiver allowing limited dollar-denominated trade.
At the same time, Chinese exports continue expanding rapidly, with May shipments reaching record monthly volumes. Growing competition between Iranian, Chinese and Southeast Asian producers has increased downward pressure across Asian markets as suppliers compete aggressively for available business.
Indian importers have already responded by lowering bid levels, reflecting growing confidence that additional supply will continue entering the market over coming months.
While confirmed transactions at substantially lower prices remain relatively limited, overall market sentiment has clearly softened.
“AFC expects ammonia prices to continue trending lower during coming weeks as improved logistics and expanding export availability gradually restore balance to the global market,” said Mr. Haugan.
ENDS
