PRESS RELEASE: Weekly Update – Global Fertiliser Markets – w/e 12.06.2026: UREA PRICE COLLAPSE

• UREA PRICES COLLAPSE; China removed export floor price prior to the India tender, triggering aggressive short selling and wiping approximately USD 100 PMT from global values almost overnight. China has since reinstated floor prices, but the damage has already been done.
• PHOSPHATE MARKETS MIXED; US DAP and MAP values moving lower while Brazilian map prices remained stable. Supply fundamentals remain extremely tight; China still absent from export markets.
• POTASH PRICES REMAIN FIRM; suppliers largely committed through August. Limited availability to support higher prices over the coming months.
• AMMONIA MARKETS CONTINUE TO SOFTEN; additional supply available from North America, Southeast Asia and China.

UREA
Indicative Range: USD 445 – 495/t

If ever there is a chance that the urea industry will be depicted in a comedy show on Broadway, this week’s events would provide an excellent script.

The international market was hit by a bombshell this week when China removed export floor prices immediately prior to the latest Indian NFL tender. The move created substantial short positions among traders and triggered one of the sharpest corrections seen this year, with approximately USD 100 PMT wiped from global urea values almost overnight.

NFL subsequently disqualified the lowest offers, resulting in accepted values of USD 449.30 PMT CFR for India’s west coast and USD 444.90 PMT CFR for the east coast. Letters of Intent have reportedly been issued through to L4 suppliers, securing approximately 2.72 million tonnes against the original requirement of 1.7 million tonnes.

Chinese authorities have since reinstated export floor prices at significantly higher levels, reportedly setting granular urea at USD 510 PMT FOB and prilled urea at USD 500 PMT FOB for Indian business. Additional reports suggest minimum export pricing of USD 490 PMT FOB for smaller non-Indian shipments and USD 480 PMT FOB for larger cargoes.

Outside India, the tender’s pricing impact is being felt globally. Brazilian CFR offers have reportedly fallen to around USD 445 PMT CFR for Algerian product, while Nigerian material from Onne reportedly traded at around USD 410 PMT FOB. Egyptian producer MOPCO has reportedly sold prompt tonnes at USD 475 PMT FOB, with later shipments achieving closer to USD 495 PMT FOB.

Less than sixty days ago, India’s April tender was transacting near USD 950 PMT CFR. Today, values below USD 450 PMT CFR are being discussed. Given the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, escalating US-Iran tensions and ongoing uncertainty surrounding Chinese exports, most observers would have expected firmer pricing. Instead, trader positioning and policy confusion have dictated market direction.

“When asked ‘What’s the Chinese floor price for urea?’ a trader was heard to quip ‘Which day?’” joked AFC CEO Mr. Stein Haugan.

PHOSPHATES
Indicative Range: USD 900–935/t CFR

Phosphate fertiliser price movements were mixed this week but limited overall, with soft demand pushing down some price benchmarks despite an exceptionally grim supply outlook.

US DAP and MAP prices declined across both NOLA and Midwest markets as sellers sought liquidity while buyers showed limited appetite amid poor affordability. The NOLA MAP barge assessment fell approximately 3% during the week and is now at a five-week low.

Spot MAP prices into Brazil remained unchanged at USD 900 PMT CFR for the eighth consecutive week. While buyers continue pushing for lower prices due to affordability concerns, limited global availability has prevented any meaningful correction.

India’s DAP assessment was also steady at USD 930-935 PMT CFR. Recent HURL enquiries reportedly attracted offers slightly above prevailing market levels, reflecting the ongoing tightness in available supply.

“Granular phosphate prices may remain stable over the short term as buyers remain cautious. However, exceptionally tight availability of both finished product and raw materials is expected to place upward pressure on prices over coming weeks and months. Poor affordability remains the primary factor limiting further upside,” commented Mr. Haugan.

POTASH
Indicative Range: USD 380–423/t CFR

The global potash market diverged across regions this week, although the overall tone remained firm.

Southeast Asian prices strengthened following Indonesia’s latest procurement tender, awarded to BPC, Uralkali and Eurochem at USD 423 PMT CFR. Affordability remains supported by strong palm oil prices, although currency weakness and rising input costs continue to weigh on farmer purchasing decisions.

Brazilian MOP prices remained unchanged at USD 400-410 PMT CFR as buyers resisted supplier attempts to push values higher. Despite this resistance, suppliers remain largely committed through August, underpinning expectations for firmer pricing later in the season.

Brazilian imports continue to run at historically high levels, reflecting confidence in agricultural demand despite current affordability challenges.

“Overall, the potash market remains fundamentally tight, with limited availability expected to support higher prices over the coming months,” said Haugan.

AMMONIA
Indicative Range: USD 475 – 575/t CFR

Market sentiment is becoming increasingly bearish as supply growth begins to outpace demand across several key regions.

The commissioning of major new production capacity in the US Gulf has increased spot availability significantly, while healthy export flows from Trinidad continue to add volume into Atlantic Basin markets. At the same time, several major North African phosphate producers have reduced operating rates, weakening demand.

In Asia, supply fundamentals have also improved following the completion of maintenance turnarounds in Malaysia and Indonesia. Chinese ammonia exports have increased sharply year-on-year, helping offset concerns associated with Middle East geopolitical instability.

“Buyers are increasingly confident that prices have peaked and are showing little urgency to secure additional tonnes,” said AFC CEO Stein Haugan.

“While India remains the most active spot market globally, even there, a growing consensus is emerging that values may have reached a near-term ceiling,” he said.

The market tone remains stable-to-soft across most regions, with increasing length evident in both Eastern and Western markets. Barring any significant geopolitical escalation affecting Middle East exports, ammonia prices are expected to remain under downward pressure through the coming weeks.

ENDS